Kalshi

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange based in Manhattan, where users trade Yes or No event contracts on real-world outcomes across economics, politics, sports, climate, technology, and culture. Launched in 2021 and now the dominant US prediction market by volume, Kalshi processes over $1 billion in annual trading volume and holds approximately 89% of the regulated US prediction market.

Each contract pays out $1 if the underlying event resolves in its favor and $0 if it does not. Share prices between $0.01 and $0.99 represent the market's implied probability of an outcome occurring. Markets cover everything from Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and inflation reports to election outcomes, weather events, sporting outcomes across NBA, NFL, MLB and 20+ leagues, and major cultural milestones.

As the first CFTC-approved event contract exchange, Kalshi offers regulatory protections that distinguish it from offshore alternatives — including transparent fee structures, accepted traditional banking methods (instant ACH transfers), and consumer protections similar to SIPC insurance. The platform's institutional-grade interface, real-time analytics, and partnerships with broadcasters CNBC and CNN have helped legitimise prediction markets within mainstream financial discourse.

Kalshi's product range continues to expand, with cryptocurrency perpetual futures and Bitcoin payment rails now complementing the core event contract business. Approximately 40% of trading volume comes from institutional participants, with retail users accessing the platform via web and mobile apps.

For traders comfortable with options-style risk and reward — and for those who want a regulated, transparent way to take positions on the outcome of real-world events — Kalshi offers one of the most established and active prediction markets available to US residents.